Sunday 28 December 2014

Looking Ahead to 2015: Dividends (明天会更好)

Some translations first.  明天会更好 means A Better Tomorrow.

My projected dividends for 2015 (based on current portfolio):
1. Starhub: $1,200
2. SGX: $1,120
3. SPH: $1,050
4. AIMS AMPI Reit: $540
5. CMT: $432
6. Starhill Global: $400
7. SATS: $390
8. SingTel: $368
9. Suntec Reit: $368
10. CDL HTrust: $315
11. SIA Engg: $240
12. Frasers CT: $216
13. SPH Reit: $216
14. HPH Trust: $180
15. Sembcorp Ind: $170 ?
16. CitySpring: $164
17. CapitaLand: $160 ?
18. Boustead: $90 ?
19. SingPost: $62.50
20. FCOT: $56
21. FEHT: $53

Total: ~$7,800
Avg/month: $650

With additional injected capital, my dividends will easily exceeding $8K for 2015.  From the modest $3k+ dividends in 2012 to the $8k+ in 2015, this shows that this strategy is working for me.  

So, the wish for the new year: Wishing everyone 明天会更好!

Friday 26 December 2014

2014 Portfolio Review (Part 2): Foundation Stocks

My portfolio was set up using SGX, Starhub and SPH as foundation stocks, while Reits and other dividend stocks are supporting casts.



For the purpose of diversification and not to tie down the well being of my portfolio to the fortune of any single company, my three foundation stocks should not exceed 20% of the overall portfolio.  On the other hand, the supporting casts should not exceed 10% of the overall portfolio.

Now, as all dividends are collected and all tradings done for 2014, it is time to review the 3 foundation stocks:

1. SGX

there was a rare massive system failure that
there was a rare massive system failure that paralysed trading on the local bourse for over three hours. - See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/business/markets/story/traders-and-investors-bemoan-yet-another-disruption-singapore-stock-mark#sthash.AG2cxYa3.dpuf
First, there was a rare massive system fault that paralyzed trading for over 3 hours, then the opening of the market was delayed to 12.30 pm because of a system problem caused by a software defect.  These incidents had tarnished the reputation of SGX as a top trading exchange.

Next, trading activities and volumes continue to languish after the infamous penny stocks crash of 2013. And we do not see mega IPO listings to SGX. When will we see an IPO blockbuster?
Trading activity fell in the first six months of the year - See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/opinion/eye-the-economy/story/time-sgx-shake-the-blues-20141204#sthash.3TFV2Nhv.dpuf

Despite these failings, recently SGX share prices continue to trend upwards possibly because of the anticipation or expectation of the lot size reduction in Jan 2015.

I have added one lot of SGX when it was traded near to $7.  I was impatient then, else I could have gotten it below $7.

Chance of SGX failing as a company is minimal and together with the quarterly dividend payouts (almost like a REIT), SGX stays as my foundation stock.

2. Starhub

Several system failures too.  Seems like Singapore's infrastructures are falling apart?

The company also facing stiff direct streaming competition on cable TV and mobile phone operations.

A bit disappointed about the dividends payouts. $200 a year for one lot was great for a $2+ stock just a few years back, but not so fantastic when it is now a $4+ stock.

As Starhub has long history in consistent dividend payments, even during the financial crisis, it stays as my foundation stock for another year.

I have added one lot of Starhub, when it was near its 52 weeks low.

3. SPH

Everybody says it is a company in a sunset industry and a dying business, but the share price of SPH stays strong and not even affected much by the recent stock market dip.  The other non-core business are helping and compensating for the poor performance of the newspaper business.

There is also a psychological barrier for me on SPH.  As my average price for SPH is $3.99, I am hesitant to make a $3+ stock into a $4+ stock.

SPH dipped below $4 in February.  Then, I was too patient or hesitant and missed the chance to add SPH.  SPH never again dip below $4 for the rest of 2014.  Look like the old stalwart is not about to die yet.  

As mentioned in my previous post, SPH is my top dividend contributor, then perhaps I should forget my average price and collect some more SPH in 2015.

So, in conclusion, no change to my foundation stocks in 2015.

Thursday 25 December 2014

2014 Portfolio Review (Part 1): Winners and Losers

Time flies and 2014 is ending soon.  All my tradings are done and all dividends are collected.  It is time to review my portfolio's winners and losers in 2014.

Top Dividend Contributors:

1. SPH (15.41%):
- Good old SPH is the top contributor to my dividend incomes.
- It is a tie with Starhub, but SPH wins by virtual of less invested capital.

2. Starhub (15.41%):
- Second because of more invested capital than SPH.

3. SGX (15.27%):
- Nothing surprising as my top three holdings are the top three contributors.  

Next, some Christmas fun and amusement. 

Dividend Yield Winners (龙虎榜):

1. HPHT (7.83%):
- This is probably due to weakening of the HPHT stock value than anything else.
- It says a lot that HPHT is also winner on another list (see below).

2. AimsAmpi Reit (7.44%)
- Not much excitement on its stock price.  Current price is less than my average price, but is above my breakeven price including dividends.
- May pick up some more if price is right.

3. FEHT (6.44%)
- Not much excitement on its stock price.  Current price is less than my average price and breakeven price.
- Least of my concern as it is less than 1% of my portfolio.
- May probably average down. 

Note: 2013 dividend yield champion SPH recorded 4.99% this year without the special dividend payout in 2013.

Dividend Yield Losers (老鼠榜): 

1. Capitaland (2.47%)
Sleeping giant.  I am still hoping dividend could increase after they took full control of CMA.

2. Boustead (2.79%)
- Low dividend yield as the usual December dividend will be paid in January.
- Will wait and see what happen with their "Boustead Project".

3. Sing Post (3.32%)
- The share price has increased, but dividends remain the same.

Note: 2013 dividend loser CMA already delisted.


A return gain or loss will only be realised when I sell.  The current unrealised return winners and losers:

Unrealised Return Winners (英雄榜):

1. Sing Post (143.6% gain):
- I may take profit off this counter if the dividends remain low.

2. SGX (81.9% gain):
- This is one of my foundation stocks and will remain for keep.

3. Suntec Reit (45.2% gain):
- Will stay for dividends.

Ah, all winners from the "S" family...

Unrealised Return Losers (狗熊榜):

1. HPHT (12.3% loss)
- Probably could recover some loss after next dividend payout.

2. SIA Engg (9.8% loss)
- Probably could recover some loss after next dividend payout.

3. Capitaland (8.9% loss)
- See above on dividend yield.

And lastly, this post is for fun and amusement.  Do not go and buy HPHT because I said it is the dividend yield champion in my portfolio, as there is very high risk associated with that stock.
  

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a Prosperous 2015.

Wednesday 24 December 2014

The Journey So Far in 2014

2014 is an eventful year for me.  There are mixed feeling of pain, sadness, anger, relief and joy.

1. Lost of my father

My father passed away this year after four long years of suffering after a stroke without prior symptom.  He could not swallow food after the stroke and was on tube feeding. The feeding tube needs to be replaced every two months and there was pain and discomfort replacing the tubes. Very offen he pulled out the tube himself and inevitably shortened the tube changing schedule and suffered more pain and discomfort.

He also has limited mobility and needed help getting up from bed, changing of clothes, diaper and bathing. 

He was on 3 hourly feeding schedule on liquid milk powder and the cost of the milk powder was obviously more expensive than eating solid food, aka rice.
 
And also the frequent 995 calls and hospital stays...

We engage a maid to take care of his feeding and daily chores.  We need to work and my mother is old and it is too taxing for her to take up the role of caregiver.

Sadly he passed away this year.  Although the family know that it is a relief for him, but we do not feel less pain and always have a regret that we did not take care of him sufficiently enough before his stroke.

2. Closer Family Bonding

One good thing from my father's sickness is the closer family bonding between my siblings, myself and my mother.

3. Debt-free

I have finally reached debt-free country on my financial journey.  Although it was four year later than my original plan because of my father's sickness, but I have no regret on this.

4. Investment

My investment in the past was haphazard and I did not have proper checks and recording of my buys/sells, dividends received, etc.  In 2013, I chanced upon a fellow blogger's blog (Dividend Warrior) and he inspired me on the dividend strategy on investment.

I retrieved my CDP letters from 2012 and created an excel record.  The following is my progress so far:

a. Portfolio value

I have doubled my portfolio value from $80K in 2012 to $160K at 2014 Christmas, by investing into dividend paying stocks.  Of course, the next doubling will not be that easy.    

b. Dividends collected

Dividends collected increased from $3k+ in 2012 to $6k+ in 2014.  Still, there is still a long way to go on the road to achieving financial freedom. 

5. Blogging World

On the blogging world, I have more visitors to my blog and more interactions in 2014.  Overall the experience are good and I really learnt a lot from sharing with fellow bloggers. Some experience are bad too.  

Although I shared my portfolio on my blog, this is for my own record of my journey. I do not expect others to follow as I have said earlier winner for one person could be a loser for another person.  

a.  Do Your Own Due Diligence

And I have not showed my CDP statement, everything could be just my fantasy. All fellow investors need DYODD before parting with your own hard earned money.  Do not believe anything blindly on Internet.

I may buy certain stocks rationally or irrationally. Do not ask me to justify why I buy certain stocks.  As I have mentioned before, I have more than 50% holdings starting with the letter "S", so I may buy something simply because it starts with the letter "S".

b. Risk Tolerance Level

Everyone has different risk tolerance level.  After suffered 100% loss on my investment, I have always think that we should invest the money we can afford to lose.

Hence, I am numb to short-term market fluctuations and did not lose any sleep when Capitaland fell 50% from my initial investment amount or when SIA Engg fell from $5+ to $3+.

c. Moderation on comments

Some may notice that I have adopted moderation to the comments on my blog.  This is because someone had left nasty comments, which I have since deleted.

I do not understand why someone can spend time to write long nasty comment, but with moderation, I can simply click "delete" even without finishing the first sentence.

So, end of the long story for now.

Wishing everyone Merry Christmas and a Prosperous 2015.

Sunday 21 December 2014

The perils of the stock market (Part 3)

In the era of increasing oil prices, investors may think that oil companies have escalating profits and investing in them are safe and sure bets.

China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Ltd is an investment holding company engaged in the supply and trading of jet fuel.  It operates in three segments: Middle Distillates, Other Oil Products, and Investments in Oil-Related Assets. 


CAO(S) was a stock darling after its IPO in 2001, with its prices surged as much as sevenfolds, as the company announced plans to refine, store and trade oil in Singapore, the Middle East and Europe.

In 2004, CAO(S) shares ran up and peaked in March 2004 as it planned to purchase Singapore Petroleum Co. from Keppel Corp.

It was all rosy outlook for CAO(S) and investors have no inkling of the shocker about to come. 

4. $550 Million Bad Bet - CAO(S)

On Nov. 25, 2004, CAO(S) sought protection from its creditors in the Singapore High Court, having lost an estimated $550 million in a series of disastrous bets on the price of oil.  Its shares were suspended from trading on the Singapore Stock Exchange.  It was down closed to 50% since its peak in March 2004.

Actually, CAO(S) began speculative oil derivatives trading in the second half of 2003 and bet its own money rather than simply executing trades for clients.

CAO(S) thought the price would fall, and when it didn't, kept repeating the bet hoping that the market would turn and in the end sunk into one of the biggest derivatives losses in years.

The trading loss was closed to CAO(S) market value meaning the company essentially worth $0, after taking into account the huge loss.  CAO(S) sought help from its parent, China Aviation Oil Holding Co., to cover the loss.

The market has no way to know the full extent of CAO(S)'s exposure to these speculative derivatives until losses or profits were realised.  Hence, analysts covering CAO(S) are not aware of that until CAO(S) asked for Court protection from creditors.



Fast forward ten years.  With the oil prices getting lower and lower these days, perhaps CAO(S)'s bad bet on oil prices in 2004 could turn into good bet in 2014......

Friday 19 December 2014

Termination of Insurance Coverage

Today received a letter from Central Provident Fund (CPF) Board, informing me that my Home Protection Scheme (HPS) with them has been terminated.  Officially I am debt free now.

Home Protection Scheme (HPS) is a mortgage reducing insurance scheme administered by the CPF Board.  Should the insured member become permanently incapacitated or die prematurely before age 65, the CPF Board will pay the outstanding housing loan based on the amount insured under HPS. 

Housing loan mortgage payment is the number one expense for me every month.  Although I am funding my housing loan payment fully from my CPF, it is definitely good to have one thing less to worry about going forward.  Just imagine what would happen to the housing loan if interest rates would go up to 7% or 5%.

Also, the remaining money in my CPF and whatever future contribution has the safe chance for compounding 2.5% per annum going forward.  And I would very much like to see this interest rate going up!
The Home Protection Scheme (HPS) is a mortgage-reducing insurance scheme to help insured members and their families pay off outstanding housing loans in the event of the insured members' permanent incapacity or premature death before age 65. - See more at: http://www.mom.gov.sg/employment-practices/employment-rights-conditions/cpf/Pages/home-protection-scheme.aspx#sthash.GWpniff4.dpuf
The Home Protection Scheme (HPS) is a mortgage-reducing insurance scheme to help insured members and their families pay off outstanding housing loans in the event of the insured members' permanent incapacity or premature death before age 65. - See more at: http://www.mom.gov.sg/employment-practices/employment-rights-conditions/cpf/Pages/home-protection-scheme.aspx#sthash.GWpniff4.dpuf
The Home Protection Scheme (HPS) is a mortgage-reducing insurance scheme to help insured members and their families pay off outstanding housing loans in the event of the insured members' permanent incapacity or premature death before age 65. - See more at: http://www.mom.gov.sg/employment-practices/employment-rights-conditions/cpf/Pages/home-protection-scheme.aspx#sthash.GWpniff4.dpuf

Wednesday 17 December 2014

2nd Day Lucky - Sembcorp Ind

I have always wanted to buy Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Ind.  They are some of the premium brands/stocks in Singapore.  However, the prices are high and their yields are not that attractive. There are also many associated risks with the stocks, such as oil prices, stiff competition, etc.

But with the current sell down, they are suddenly looking very attractive and within reach.

I think Sembcorp Ind is a safer option.  It has a good utilities segment that provides regular and consistent incomes for the company.

And as oil is a depleting resource on the energy thirsty Earth, its price cannot be depressed for a very long time.

I initiated "buy" for Sembcorp Ind at $4.06 yesterday but was not successful.  I tried again for 1 lot today at same price and the order was filled in the morning.  Afternoon, the price kept moving up and ended the day at $4.16. 

Whether lucky or not, I will just keep Sembcorp Ind for dividends.

And after collecting Sembcorp Ind into my portfolio, I find that now I have more than 50% of my holdings starting with the letter "S"...

Tuesday 16 December 2014

Spoilt for choice - Tide or Tsunami?

With limited capital, my strategy is nibbling one or two stocks every month. So it is good that at my buy in time, the market is on a downtrend rather than an uptrend.

Today it was an ocean of red.  All my current holdings, except three, are in red.  Many have reached my accumulation prices. 

And all stocks on my watchlist are in red. With limited investment capital, usually I have just a handful of counters to choose from every month.  Of course, I do not want to open the warchest yet.

However, today I am spoilt for choice with so many attractive counters.  I entered buy orders for a couple counters, but unfortunately ended the day empty handed.

Opportunity or risk?

Well, let's see tomorrow...

Friday 5 December 2014

The perils of the stock market (Part 2)

I like shopping and have a few properties at the prime shopping area in Orchard - Paragon, Ngee Ann City, Wisma Atria, The Atrium, Plaza Singapura and Orchard Hotel Shopping Arcade.  

Yes, these are actually among the REITs that I have.  I always try to shop and dine at these REIT shopping centers, so that my spending can contribute to the REITs earning and ultimately they pay me back via the regular dividends.

Before the era of REITs, some investors may have the same thinking.  There is one prime landmark opposite Orchard MRT station and that is non other than Tangs Plaza.

3. Privatisation battles - CK Tang

C.K. Tang Limited is founded by Tang Choon Keng in 1932. The company is in the business of departmental store retailing and general merchandising. CK Tang shares were listed in 1975.

Unfortunately this stock had a low free float or public float. Meaning the number of shares hold by the public were low comparing to shares hold by the major shareholder, in this case, the Tang family.

Any stock with low free float risk being taken private by the major shareholder.  Especially during bear season, because as the market is depressed, any privatisation attempt is much less expensive.  The major shareholder would not offer a high price for the shares held by the public minority shareholders. The minority shareholders may be forced to stomach a loss even if they have the holding power to wait for bull season to return.

The Tang family first attempted to take CK Tang private in  2003.  The minority shareholders thought that the offer price was too low and did not take into consideration the lucrative redevelopment potential of the prime freehold land that Tangs Plaza sat on.  But the Tang family stated that there is no plan to redevelop the Orchard Road property in the foreseeable future.  The minority shareholders won this battle by defeating the privatisation attempt.

The Tang family tried again in 2006. Again, the redevelop potential for Tangs Plaza was the major disagreement between Tang family and the minority shareholders. Tang family maintained that there is no plan for redevelopment, but minority shareholders worried that they would redevelop the property after privatisation and rob them of greater returns. The minority shareholders won again by defeating this second privatisation attempt.

In 2009, possibly third time lucky or simply due to battle weary shareholders giving up, the number of shareholders that agreed to sell hit the minimum required number and CK Tang was finally taken private. 

One last note. In 2012, the Tang family initiated a S$45 million transformation plan to its flagship store on Orchard Road.


Next, investing in a company could be a gamble, but if the management gamble... (see Part 3)

Monday 1 December 2014

My Stock Portfolio @ end Nov 2014

No. Stock Name Lots Portfolio% Avg Cost$ Breakeven$ Market$
1
SGX
4
18.69
4.95
3.75
7.32
2
Starhub
6
15.86
3.36
2.85
4.14
3
SPH
5
13.69
3.99
3.39
4.29
4
SATS
3
5.61
3.02
3.00
2.93
5
SingTel
2.2
5.45
3.37
3.10
3.90
6
CapitaMall Trust
4
5.06
1.76
1.29
1.98
7
Suntec Reit
4
5.03
1.58
1.24
1.97
8
AIMS AMPI Reit
5
4.63
1.47
1.39
1.45
9
CapitaLand
2
4.24
3.91
3.61
3.32
10
Starhill Global
8
4.14
0.74
0.59
0.81
11
CDL HTrust
3
3.30
1.66
1.06
1.725
12
SIA Engg
1
2.62
4.86
4.68
4.11
13
Frasers CT
2
2.42
1.81
1.72
1.895
14
SPH Reit
3
2.03
0.97
0.96
1.06
15
CitySpring
5
1.72
0.60
0.48
0.54
16
HPH Trust
3
1.63
0.90
0.81
0.685
17
Sing Post
1
1.23
0.875
0.62
1.93
18
Boustead
1
1.17
1.44
1.38
1.83
19
Frasers Com Tr
1
0.94
1.46
1.52
1.47
20
FE HTrust
1
0.53
0.93
0.86
0.83
Movement in my portfolio in Nov:-
Sold:- Nil.
Bought:- SATS, CitySpring, Frasers Com Tr.

Dividends collected in Nov: $958.02
2014 avg dividends/month: $528.22


Boring process of building up my passive income portfolio brick-by-brick (bit-by-bit).  Both good and bad news.  

Bad - wrong projection of November dividends - did not exceed $1K.
Good - my portfolio value crossed the $150K milestone.

Next Month:

December is my Christmas dividend harvesting month - another month that exceed $1K in dividend incomes.  Though, according to my projection, it is just $1 above $1K.