Saturday 30 January 2016

2016 Weekly Review - Week 4

The fight against the Bear Army probably will turn into a long drawn fight.

After a minor victory on Friday, my army gained some grounds and my territory's lost narrow to 4.0% at the end of the 4th week (not counting dividends collected).  

Considering that my portfolio had once declined more than 50% during the Lehman Bear Attack, so far this 2016 Bear Attack has produced only a minor blip on my portfolio.

Two units in my O&G battalion were hardest hit in this 2016 Bear Attack.  My worst performing counter is Keppel Corp, which has lost 36% its invested value. Sembcorp Industries has recovered a bit but also has lost 28.2% its invested value.  

These 2 counters are main contributors to my portfolio's decline.  Let's see how low Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Industries can go.  But I just do not think they could go bust.

A lot of counters are very tempting now and I know low could go lower.  But I took a leap of faith and had a small nibble on OCBC as part of my January DCA.

Saturday 23 January 2016

2016 Weekly Review - Week 3

The market is still trending downwards in 2016.

In spite of the mini gain on Friday, my portfolio's lost widen to 6.0% after the 3rd week (not counting dividends collected).

My worst performing counter is Keppel Corp, which has lost 36% its invested value.  The depressed oil price means Keppel Corp may not get back to its glory days of being a $12 stock for a long time.  Keppel Corp announced the final dividend payout of 22 cents on Thursday, which is about 40% less from 2015 of 36 cents.   

Sembcorp Indust is not far behind from Keppel Corp and so far has lost 32.9% its invested value.  These 2 counters are main contributors to my portfolio's decline.  Let's see how low Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Indust can go.  But I just do not think they could go bust.

A lot of counters are very tempting now and I just about managed to stop myself from clicking the "buy" button this week.  Low could go lower.  But I think I will just continue my own DCA every month at the moment.

2016 Weekly Review - Week 2

I am taking a closer monitoring of my holdings this year as the Bear Army continues to run wild.  This is for reinforcement deployment planning (warchest).

Since the Bear Army launched the attack on the first trading day of 2016, it has taken over 4.6% of my territory after 2 weeks of fighting (not counting dividends collected).

In my rush in sending reserved units to the frontline on the first week, my reinforcement contingent was ambushed by the Bear Army (bank counters slided down too).

My worst performing counter is Keppel Corp, which has lost 38% its invested value.  The depressed oil price means Keppel Corp may not get back to its glory days of being a $12 stock for a long time.  Next week is Keppel Corp's financial reporting and it could be nasty.  I think it is impossible that Keppel Corp could maintain the 48c dividend as in 2015.  Maybe a 30-50% cut in dividend is possible.  

Sembcorp Indust is not far behind from Keppel Corp and so far has lost 30% its invested value.  These 2 counters are main contributors to my portfolio's decline.  Let's see how low Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Indust can go.  But I just do not think they could go bust.

A lot of counters are very tempting now and I just about managed to stop myself from clicking the "buy" button this week.  Low could go lower.  And most importantly, the current bear could be different from that Lehman Bear, and it could stay put here for a long time.  Let's ponder carefully before using our limited resources.

Saturday 9 January 2016

Bad Start to 2016

The Bear should be in hibernation in winter?  No?

When you least expected it, the Bear Army sprang a surprise attack on the first week of 2016.  While my total portfolio value (invested capital) stayed at positive territory at the end of 2015, it dipped below after the Thursday selldown.  Though I still have quite a safety margin if including the dividends collected.

All my 28 counters declined and turned red on Thursday! (I have a small nibble into UOB on Monday, but perhaps I ate too early!).  Even on that Black Monday 0n 24th August 2015, there was at least a couple of my counters stayed green.  This has not happened before since I actively monitored my portfolio from 2012.

On 24th August, my portfolio declined $7K.  Small consolation was that it dipped just $4.7K on Thursday despite totally red in all counters.  Or perhaps the STI has not been returned to its level at August.

The first week does not bode well for the stock market in 2016.  The Bear Army could do a hit-and-run and could stay entrenched for a long time.  

I will stay invested but will revise my dividend forecast down by 10% as I do not think some companies could maintain the dividend payouts in 2016, especially those in the O&G sector.  My hope of of reaching $12K dividends for the year looks less and less likely.  

Lastly, we also need to ponder carefully when and where to deploy our warchest...... 

Friday 1 January 2016

My Stock Portfolio @ end Dec 2015

No. STOCK NAME No.of SHARES PORTFOLIO% MARKET $
1
SGX
4,000
16.23
7.70
2
Starhub
6,700
13.06
3.70
3
SPH
5,000
10.38
3.94
4
SATS
3,000
6.07
3.84
5
AIMS AMPI Reit
5,900
4.27
1.375
6
SingTel
2,190
4.23
3.67
7
CapitaMall Trust
4,000
4.07
1.93
8
Suntec Reit
4,900
4.00
1.55
9
OCBC Bank
815
3.78
8.80
10
CapitaLand
2,000
3.53
3.35
11
Keppel Corp
1,000
3.43
6.51
12
Starhill Global
8,000
3.18
0.755
13
SPH Reit
5,800
2.92
0.955
14
Sembcorp Ind
1,800
2.89
3.05
15
FCT
2,900
2.82
1.845
16
ParkwayLife Reit
1,800
2.21
2.33
17
CDL HTrust
3,000
2.09
1.325
18
SIA Engg
1,000
1.95
3.70
19
Keppel DC Reit
3,600
1.92
1.015
20
Keppel InfraTr
6,000
1.61
0.51
21
ST Engg
800
1.27
3.01
22
HPH Trust
3,000
1.18
0.53
23
FCOT
1,000
0.67
1.27
24
FE HTrust
1,900
0.67
0.665
25
MapletreeCom
900
0.62
1.30
26
Saizen Reit
900
0.52
1.09
27
Boustead
1,000
0.44
0.835
Movement in my portfolio in December:-
Sold:- Nil.
Bought:- FCT, Sembcorp Indust, Keppel DC Reit.

Dividends collected in December: $1,066.66
2015 avg dividends/month: $765.79 [34.9% up cf. 2014]
Total dividends collected in 2015: $9,189.49
Average yield of portfolio: 5.19%

Boring process of building up my passive income portfolio brick-by-brick (bit-by-bit).


Comments:
1. December is the 4th best month of the year for me; after May, August and November. These four months provide >$1K dividend incomes.

2. Finally US announced a modest interest hike in Dec.  The hike was not excessive and the market reacted positively.  Well, as I said ealier, it is best to get over this inevitable thing.

3. My earlier projection on my dividends on current portfolio in 2016 gave a number very close to $10K.  This allows me to work hard towards the big milestone of $12K per year or $1K per month.

4. Although the $12K milestone looks a bit over-stretching, I think it is a challenging but reachable targetConsidering the potential return in capital (playing cheat a bit here) from Saizen Reit, I just need another $1K to close the gap.