The market is still trending downwards in 2016.
In spite of the mini gain on Friday, my portfolio's lost widen to 6.0% after the 3rd week (not
counting dividends collected).
My worst performing counter is Keppel Corp, which has lost 36% its invested value. The depressed oil price means Keppel Corp may not get back to its glory days of being a $12 stock for a long time. Keppel Corp announced the final dividend payout of 22 cents on Thursday, which is about 40% less from 2015 of 36 cents.
Sembcorp Indust is not far behind from Keppel Corp and so far has lost 32.9%
its invested value. These 2 counters are main contributors to my
portfolio's decline. Let's see how low Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Indust
can go. But I just do not think they could go bust.
A
lot of counters are very tempting now and I just about managed to stop
myself from clicking the "buy" button this week. Low could go lower. But I think I will just continue my own DCA every month at the moment.
Saturday, 23 January 2016
2016 Weekly Review - Week 2
I am taking a closer monitoring of my holdings this year as the Bear Army continues to run wild. This is for reinforcement deployment planning (warchest).
Since the Bear Army launched the attack on the first trading day of 2016, it has taken over 4.6% of my territory after 2 weeks of fighting (not counting dividends collected).
In my rush in sending reserved units to the frontline on the first week, my reinforcement contingent was ambushed by the Bear Army (bank counters slided down too).
My worst performing counter is Keppel Corp, which has lost 38% its invested value. The depressed oil price means Keppel Corp may not get back to its glory days of being a $12 stock for a long time. Next week is Keppel Corp's financial reporting and it could be nasty. I think it is impossible that Keppel Corp could maintain the 48c dividend as in 2015. Maybe a 30-50% cut in dividend is possible.
Sembcorp Indust is not far behind from Keppel Corp and so far has lost 30% its invested value. These 2 counters are main contributors to my portfolio's decline. Let's see how low Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Indust can go. But I just do not think they could go bust.
A lot of counters are very tempting now and I just about managed to stop myself from clicking the "buy" button this week. Low could go lower. And most importantly, the current bear could be different from that Lehman Bear, and it could stay put here for a long time. Let's ponder carefully before using our limited resources.
Since the Bear Army launched the attack on the first trading day of 2016, it has taken over 4.6% of my territory after 2 weeks of fighting (not counting dividends collected).
In my rush in sending reserved units to the frontline on the first week, my reinforcement contingent was ambushed by the Bear Army (bank counters slided down too).
My worst performing counter is Keppel Corp, which has lost 38% its invested value. The depressed oil price means Keppel Corp may not get back to its glory days of being a $12 stock for a long time. Next week is Keppel Corp's financial reporting and it could be nasty. I think it is impossible that Keppel Corp could maintain the 48c dividend as in 2015. Maybe a 30-50% cut in dividend is possible.
Sembcorp Indust is not far behind from Keppel Corp and so far has lost 30% its invested value. These 2 counters are main contributors to my portfolio's decline. Let's see how low Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Indust can go. But I just do not think they could go bust.
A lot of counters are very tempting now and I just about managed to stop myself from clicking the "buy" button this week. Low could go lower. And most importantly, the current bear could be different from that Lehman Bear, and it could stay put here for a long time. Let's ponder carefully before using our limited resources.
Saturday, 9 January 2016
Bad Start to 2016
The Bear should be in hibernation in winter? No?
When you least expected it, the Bear Army sprang a surprise attack on the first week of 2016. While my total portfolio value (invested capital) stayed at positive territory at the end of 2015, it dipped below after the Thursday selldown. Though I still have quite a safety margin if including the dividends collected.
All my 28 counters declined and turned red on Thursday! (I have a small nibble into UOB on Monday, but perhaps I ate too early!). Even on that Black Monday 0n 24th August 2015, there was at least a couple of my counters stayed green. This has not happened before since I actively monitored my portfolio from 2012.
On 24th August, my portfolio declined $7K. Small consolation was that it dipped just $4.7K on Thursday despite totally red in all counters. Or perhaps the STI has not been returned to its level at August.
The first week does not bode well for the stock market in 2016. The Bear Army could do a hit-and-run and could stay entrenched for a long time.
I will stay invested but will revise my dividend forecast down by 10% as I do not think some companies could maintain the dividend payouts in 2016, especially those in the O&G sector. My hope of of reaching $12K dividends for the year looks less and less likely.
Lastly, we also need to ponder carefully when and where to deploy our warchest......
When you least expected it, the Bear Army sprang a surprise attack on the first week of 2016. While my total portfolio value (invested capital) stayed at positive territory at the end of 2015, it dipped below after the Thursday selldown. Though I still have quite a safety margin if including the dividends collected.
All my 28 counters declined and turned red on Thursday! (I have a small nibble into UOB on Monday, but perhaps I ate too early!). Even on that Black Monday 0n 24th August 2015, there was at least a couple of my counters stayed green. This has not happened before since I actively monitored my portfolio from 2012.
On 24th August, my portfolio declined $7K. Small consolation was that it dipped just $4.7K on Thursday despite totally red in all counters. Or perhaps the STI has not been returned to its level at August.
The first week does not bode well for the stock market in 2016. The Bear Army could do a hit-and-run and could stay entrenched for a long time.
I will stay invested but will revise my dividend forecast down by 10% as I do not think some companies could maintain the dividend payouts in 2016, especially those in the O&G sector. My hope of of reaching $12K dividends for the year looks less and less likely.
Lastly, we also need to ponder carefully when and where to deploy our warchest......
Friday, 1 January 2016
My Stock Portfolio @ end Dec 2015
| No. | STOCK NAME | No.of SHARES | PORTFOLIO% | MARKET $ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGX | |||||
| Starhub | |||||
| SPH | |||||
| SATS | |||||
| AIMS AMPI Reit | |||||
| SingTel | |||||
| CapitaMall Trust | |||||
| Suntec Reit | |||||
| OCBC Bank | |||||
| CapitaLand | |||||
| Keppel Corp | |||||
| Starhill Global | |||||
| SPH Reit | |||||
| Sembcorp Ind | |||||
| FCT | |||||
| ParkwayLife Reit | |||||
| CDL HTrust | |||||
| SIA Engg | |||||
| Keppel DC Reit | |||||
| Keppel InfraTr | |||||
| ST Engg | |||||
| HPH Trust | |||||
| FCOT | |||||
| FE HTrust | |||||
| MapletreeCom | |||||
| Saizen Reit | |||||
| Boustead | |||||
Sold:- Nil.
Bought:- FCT, Sembcorp Indust, Keppel DC Reit.
Dividends collected in December: $1,066.66
2015 avg dividends/month: $765.79 [34.9% up cf. 2014]
Total dividends collected in 2015: $9,189.49
Average yield of portfolio: 5.19%
Boring process of building up my passive income portfolio brick-by-brick (bit-by-bit).
Comments:
1. December is the 4th best month of the year for me; after May, August and November. These four months provide >$1K dividend incomes.
2. Finally US announced a modest interest hike in Dec. The hike was not excessive and the market reacted positively. Well, as I said ealier, it is best to get over this inevitable thing.
3. My earlier projection on my dividends on current portfolio in 2016 gave a number very close to $10K. This allows me to work hard towards the big milestone of $12K per year or $1K per month.
4. Although the $12K milestone looks a bit over-stretching, I think it is a challenging but reachable target. Considering the potential return in capital (playing cheat a bit here) from Saizen Reit, I just need another $1K to close the gap.
Wednesday, 30 December 2015
Looking Ahead to 2016: Dividends (明天会更好)
2015 was a bad year for investment. Hopefully 2016 is a better year.
My projected dividends for 2016 (based on current portfolio):
1. Starhub: $1,340
2. SGX: $1,240
3. SPH: $1,000
4. AIMS AMPI Reit: $666
5. Suntec Reit: $481 ?
6. Keppel Corp: $480 ?
7. CMT: $449
8. SATS: $420
9. Starhill Global: $412
10. SingTel: $383
11. Frasers CT: $336
12. SPH Reit: $317
13. CDL HTrust: $312
14. OCBC: $293
15. Sembcorp Ind: $288
16. Keppel Infra Trust: $223
17. HPH Trust: $205
18. CapitaLand: $180
19. PLife Reit: $158 ?
20. SIA Engg: $145
21. ST Engg: $128
22. Keppel DC Reit: $123 ?
23. FCOT: $97
24. FEHT: $89
25. MCT: $72
26. Boustead: $30 ?
27. Saizen Reit: $27 ?
Total: ~$9,894
Avg/month: $824
With additional injected capital, my dividends will easily exceeding $10K for 2016. And perhaps some counters will issue special dividends! From the modest $3k+ dividends in 2012 to the $10k+ in 2016, this shows that this strategy is working for me.
The wish for the new year: Wishing everyone 明天会更好!
My projected dividends for 2016 (based on current portfolio):
1. Starhub: $1,340
2. SGX: $1,240
3. SPH: $1,000
4. AIMS AMPI Reit: $666
5. Suntec Reit: $481 ?
6. Keppel Corp: $480 ?
7. CMT: $449
8. SATS: $420
9. Starhill Global: $412
10. SingTel: $383
11. Frasers CT: $336
12. SPH Reit: $317
13. CDL HTrust: $312
14. OCBC: $293
15. Sembcorp Ind: $288
16. Keppel Infra Trust: $223
17. HPH Trust: $205
18. CapitaLand: $180
19. PLife Reit: $158 ?
20. SIA Engg: $145
21. ST Engg: $128
22. Keppel DC Reit: $123 ?
23. FCOT: $97
24. FEHT: $89
25. MCT: $72
26. Boustead: $30 ?
27. Saizen Reit: $27 ?
Total: ~$9,894
Avg/month: $824
With additional injected capital, my dividends will easily exceeding $10K for 2016. And perhaps some counters will issue special dividends! From the modest $3k+ dividends in 2012 to the $10k+ in 2016, this shows that this strategy is working for me.
The wish for the new year: Wishing everyone 明天会更好!
Friday, 25 December 2015
2015 Portfolio Review (Part 2): Foundation Stocks
2015 is a very challenging year for investment, especially in the last two quarters of the year. China market crashed from its height, devalued renminbi, fear of US interest hike and persistent low oil prices weighed heavily on the market. Sometimes you think you are moving one step forward, but then you are actually forced taking two steps backward due to strong headwinds.
In the month of August, my portfolio crashed $20K. On the Black Monday (24th Aug), my total portfolio value marginally fell below the total invested capital value.
My portfolio was set up using SGX, Starhub and SPH as foundation stocks, and Reits and other dividend stocks are supporting casts. While the Reits and O&G counters got battered by the market downturn, luckily my foundation stocks are more able to withstand the barrage. And on the same week of Black Monday, my portfolio recovered back to positive territory.
I think the major factor is probably due to the deep roots that the foundation stock trees managed to grow over the years. However, there is no short-cut here, and we really need time for the roots of our trees to grow.
I did some small shopping on Black Monday. However, I found out that low can become lower as banks and O&G counters continue their march downwards.
My portfolio managed to stay positive at Christmas, meaning the current value is more than the invested capital value, without counting the dividends received. The dividends collected are like roots growing under the dividend trees.
Now, as all dividends are collected and all tradings done for 2015, it is time to review the 3 foundation stocks:
1. SGX
Trading activities and volumes continue to languish despite reduction of lot size from 1,000 to 100 shares. Only one pathetic mainboard IPO listing in the whole year of 2015. When will we see an IPO blockbuster?
Despite these failings, SGX share price is relatively resilient in the year 2015. Interim dividend increased from 4 cents to 5 cents from November. And my SGX tree already grows very deep roots.
Chance of SGX failing as a company is minimal and together with the quarterly dividend payouts (almost like a REIT), SGX stays as my foundation stock.
2. Starhub
The company is facing stiff direct streaming competition on cable TV, mobile phone operations and uncertainties in market dilution after the 4th telco starts operation.
Starhub has long history in consistent dividend payments, and the Starhub tree has deep roots and remains standing during the August gale. Starhub stays as my foundation stock for another year.
3. SPH
Everybody says it is a company in a sunset industry and a dying business. The SPH tree does not have the deep roots as SGX and Starhub in my portfolio but it remained standing during the August gale. Look like the old stalwart is not about to die yet.
So, in conclusion, no change to my foundation stocks in 2016.
In the month of August, my portfolio crashed $20K. On the Black Monday (24th Aug), my total portfolio value marginally fell below the total invested capital value.
My portfolio was set up using SGX, Starhub and SPH as foundation stocks, and Reits and other dividend stocks are supporting casts. While the Reits and O&G counters got battered by the market downturn, luckily my foundation stocks are more able to withstand the barrage. And on the same week of Black Monday, my portfolio recovered back to positive territory.
I think the major factor is probably due to the deep roots that the foundation stock trees managed to grow over the years. However, there is no short-cut here, and we really need time for the roots of our trees to grow.
I did some small shopping on Black Monday. However, I found out that low can become lower as banks and O&G counters continue their march downwards.
My portfolio managed to stay positive at Christmas, meaning the current value is more than the invested capital value, without counting the dividends received. The dividends collected are like roots growing under the dividend trees.
Now, as all dividends are collected and all tradings done for 2015, it is time to review the 3 foundation stocks:
1. SGX
Trading activities and volumes continue to languish despite reduction of lot size from 1,000 to 100 shares. Only one pathetic mainboard IPO listing in the whole year of 2015. When will we see an IPO blockbuster?
Trading
activity fell in the first six months of the year - See more at:
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/opinion/eye-the-economy/story/time-sgx-shake-the-blues-20141204#sthash.3TFV2Nhv.dpuf
Despite these failings, SGX share price is relatively resilient in the year 2015. Interim dividend increased from 4 cents to 5 cents from November. And my SGX tree already grows very deep roots.
Chance of SGX failing as a company is minimal and together with the quarterly dividend payouts (almost like a REIT), SGX stays as my foundation stock.
2. Starhub
The company is facing stiff direct streaming competition on cable TV, mobile phone operations and uncertainties in market dilution after the 4th telco starts operation.
Starhub has long history in consistent dividend payments, and the Starhub tree has deep roots and remains standing during the August gale. Starhub stays as my foundation stock for another year.
3. SPH
Everybody says it is a company in a sunset industry and a dying business. The SPH tree does not have the deep roots as SGX and Starhub in my portfolio but it remained standing during the August gale. Look like the old stalwart is not about to die yet.
So, in conclusion, no change to my foundation stocks in 2016.
Thursday, 24 December 2015
2015 Portfolio Review (Part 1): Winners and Losers
Time flies and 2015 is ending soon. All my tradings are done and all dividends are collected. It is time to review my portfolio's winners and losers in 2015.
Top Dividend Contributors:
1. Starhub (13.82%):
- 4th telco looming, but consistent Starhub is still the top dividend contributor.
2. SGX (12.62%):
- SGX has dividend payout every quarter, almost like a REIT.
3. SPH (10.88%):
- Good old SPH is one of the consistent contributor to my dividend incomes.
Dethroned: SPH (2014).
In 2014, the top 3 dividend contributors accounted for 46% of my total dividends. In 2015, the top 3 dividend contributors accounted for just 37% of the total dividends. So, a bit of diversification.
Next, some Christmas fun and amusement.
Dividend Yield Winners (龙虎榜):
1. Boustead (37.18%):
- Special dividend payout (I considered the free Boustead Proj shares as special dividend from Boustead).
- Huge weakening of Boustead stock value after spinning off Boustead Project. Current price is less than my breakeven price.
- Should have sold after getting the special dividend.
2. Keppel Infra Trust (10.92%)
- Special dividend payout, after merging with CitySpring.
- Have been holding CitySpring since its IPO. Not a concern to me as its current price is higher than my breakeven price.
3. HPHT (9.19%)
- Highest dividend payer from STI component stocks. Current price is less than my average price and breakeven price.
- Not too much concern to me as it is just 1% of my portfolio.
- May probably average down.
Dethroned: HPHT (2014).
Dividend Yield Losers (老鼠榜):
1. Capitaland (2.70%):
- Sleeping giant. I am still waiting for it to wake up to its potential and hoping its dividend could increase.
- Capitaland retains the trophy for this category.
2. SATS (3.60%):
- The share price has increased, but dividends remain the same.
3. SGX (3.81%):
- Hope the increase in dividend in November could be sustained.
A return gain or loss will only be realised when I sell. The current unrealised return winners and losers:
Unrealised Return Winners (英雄榜):
1. SGX (83.7% gain):
- This is one of my foundation stocks and will remain for keep.
2. CapitaMall Trust (44.1% gain):
- Will stay for dividends.
3. SATS (35.6% gain):
- Will stay for dividends and possibly growth.
Dethroned: Sing Post (2014).
Unrealised Return Losers (狗熊榜):
1. Keppel Corp (18.3% loss)
- Fallen giant. Stock value depressed due to low oil price.
- May probably average down.
2. SIA Engg (16.9% loss)
- Probably could recover some loss after next dividend payout.
3. HPHT (15.3% loss)
- Double winner HPHT failed to defend the 2 titles it won in 2014.
Dethroned: HPHT (2014).
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a Prosperous 2016.
Top Dividend Contributors:
1. Starhub (13.82%):
- 4th telco looming, but consistent Starhub is still the top dividend contributor.
2. SGX (12.62%):
- SGX has dividend payout every quarter, almost like a REIT.
3. SPH (10.88%):
- Good old SPH is one of the consistent contributor to my dividend incomes.
Dethroned: SPH (2014).
In 2014, the top 3 dividend contributors accounted for 46% of my total dividends. In 2015, the top 3 dividend contributors accounted for just 37% of the total dividends. So, a bit of diversification.
Next, some Christmas fun and amusement.
Dividend Yield Winners (龙虎榜):
1. Boustead (37.18%):
- Special dividend payout (I considered the free Boustead Proj shares as special dividend from Boustead).
- Huge weakening of Boustead stock value after spinning off Boustead Project. Current price is less than my breakeven price.
- Should have sold after getting the special dividend.
2. Keppel Infra Trust (10.92%)
- Special dividend payout, after merging with CitySpring.
- Have been holding CitySpring since its IPO. Not a concern to me as its current price is higher than my breakeven price.
3. HPHT (9.19%)
- Highest dividend payer from STI component stocks. Current price is less than my average price and breakeven price.
- Not too much concern to me as it is just 1% of my portfolio.
- May probably average down.
Dethroned: HPHT (2014).
Dividend Yield Losers (老鼠榜):
1. Capitaland (2.70%):
- Sleeping giant. I am still waiting for it to wake up to its potential and hoping its dividend could increase.
- Capitaland retains the trophy for this category.
2. SATS (3.60%):
- The share price has increased, but dividends remain the same.
3. SGX (3.81%):
- Hope the increase in dividend in November could be sustained.
A return gain or loss will only be realised when I sell. The current unrealised return winners and losers:
Unrealised Return Winners (英雄榜):
1. SGX (83.7% gain):
- This is one of my foundation stocks and will remain for keep.
2. CapitaMall Trust (44.1% gain):
- Will stay for dividends.
3. SATS (35.6% gain):
- Will stay for dividends and possibly growth.
Dethroned: Sing Post (2014).
Unrealised Return Losers (狗熊榜):
1. Keppel Corp (18.3% loss)
- Fallen giant. Stock value depressed due to low oil price.
- May probably average down.
2. SIA Engg (16.9% loss)
- Probably could recover some loss after next dividend payout.
3. HPHT (15.3% loss)
- Double winner HPHT failed to defend the 2 titles it won in 2014.
Dethroned: HPHT (2014).
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a Prosperous 2016.
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