Saturday, 14 January 2017

IPO - Daisin Retail Trust

Daisin Retail Trust is the first IPO listing in 2017. 

This listing looks very rushing in its timing.  Just read about the news in the newspaper this Saturday morning.  Subscription already opened Friday 9 pm and will close on Wednesday noon.

I have doubts in this new Daisin Retail Trust.  The reasons:

1. China. Hmm..... 
All the initial three properties in one single city, Zhongshan, which means high geographical concentration risk.  The spsonsor of the trust, Zhongshan Dasin Reit Estate Co., also has right of first refusal for further 14 completed and uncompleted properties.  However, the bulk of these propertes are in Zhongshan too, which further aggravate the
geographical concentration risk.

2. Placement and rights issue?
Good to know that the Sponsor has properties in the pipeline to be injected into the Trust.  But will the investors be forced to cough out the dividends and more for rights? 

3. Sponsored by a China-based group
Of course not all China Reits are bad.  Capitaland Retail China Tr and Mapletree GCC Tr are doing fine, but they are managed by Capitaland and Mapletree.  For comparison, the 2 Reits sponsored and managed by China-based group:
- BHG Reit, IPO at $0.80, current price at $0.65;
- EC World Reit, IPO at $0.81, current price at $0.705

4. Track Record
Lack of track record for the sponsor Zhongshan Dasin Reit Estate Co.

5. Projected Yield of 8.5%
8.5% is with distribution wavier from its sponsor.  My holdings of AIMSAMPI Reit and Cache Log Trust have comparable yield and Accordia Golf Trust has higher yield. So, I do not wish to get a new and high risk holding.  DYODD.

6. NAV
I can't find the NAV in the prospectus.  But according to Mr IPO, it is $1.01.  Which means there is an approx 21% discount of the IPO price $0.80 to its NAV.  Is this sufficient safety margin?   

I will sit out this IPO despite its listing price below its NAV price.

Tuesday, 10 January 2017

STI 3,000 and 250K milestone

STI finally broke through 3,000 points today.  Very contrasting start of the year 2017 than 2016.  While last year we saw the bear raging in the beginning of the year, this year look like it is the bull's turn.

The good news for me is that my reit trees planting in the last two months is already bearing early fruits.  While doing nothing yet in 2017, my total portfolio value crosses 250K for the first time in my investment journey.

It has been a hard and bumpy ride reaching the 250K milestone.    

Saturday, 7 January 2017

REIT History: Frasers Commercial Trust

Fraser Commercial Trust is one of my smaller REIT counters.  Like AIMSAMPI Capital Industrial Reit, it is another reit that rises from the ashes.  I dug out history of the Reit from the Internet and I am particularly interested on its placements and rights issues in the past.

Mar 2006:
- IPO at $1.00 as Allco Reit. First commercial reit with properties in Singapore (China Square Central) and Australia [Central Park, Perth (50% interest)]; and 15.7% interest in Australian Wholesale Property Fund in its initial portfolio
- Acquired 55 Market Street

2007:
- 1 for 1 Rights at $1.04. Excess rights priced at $1.14 (to acquire 50% interest in a property, Canberra)
- Acquired 4 properties in Japan
- Acquired Keypoint, Singapore 
- End 2007, unit price $0.90 

2008: 
- FCL bought Allco Reit (17.7%) and its Manager (100%) ($0.83 per unit) 
- Renamed Frasers Commercial Trust 
- Global Financial Crisis
- End 2008, unit price $0.24
(Perhaps FCL bought in at the wrong time?)

2009: 
- 3 for 1 Renouceable Rights at $0.095 (to acquire Alexandra Technopark)
- End 2009, unit price $0.14 

2010:
- End 2010, unit price $0.17

2011:
- Divested Cosmo Plaza, Japan
- Divested Australian Wholesale Property Fund 
- 5 to 1 unit consolidation
- End 2011, unit price $0.74

2012:
- Acquired remaining 50% of Caroline Chisholm Centre, Canberra
- Divested Keypoint 
- End 2012, unit price $1.32 

2013:
- Divested all remaining Japanese properties 
- End 2013, unit price $1.27

2014: 
- End 2014, unit price $1.42 
(My maiden purchase into the Reit at $1.46. Attracted by the high yield, I went in too high and the counter was in the red by year end)

2015:
- Private Placement at $1.48
- Acquired 357 Collins Street, Melbourne
- End 2015, unit price $1.27

2016:
- End 2016, unit price $1.26


Quite a checkered history for this Reit.  As I did not follow Allco Reit in its early days, the early history may not be complete or accurate.  Someone in the know please correct my error(s).

This is another IPO that I missed as I was not in Singapore at Allco Reit's IPO.  Don't really know if can breakeven now if I got in at IPO?  I have quite a few toxic IPOs over the years, e.g., CitySpring (now Keppel Infra Tr), Yellow Pages, HPH Trust and Rickmers. 

I have a high risk appetite and tolerance and FCOT is part of my higher risk holdings.  Hope this is a phoenix that rises from the ashes.

Monday, 2 January 2017

My Stock Portfolio @ end Dec 2016

No. STOCK NAME No.of SHARES PORTFOLIO% MARKET $
1
SGX
4,000
11.81
7.16
2
SPH
6,000
8.73
3.53
3
Starhub
7,000
8.11
2.81
4
SATS
3,000
6.00
4.85
5
OCBC Bank
1,438
5.29
8.92
6
UOB
613
5.16
20.40
7
CapitaLand Mall Tr
5,800
4.51
1.885
8
AIMS AMPI Reit
7,700
4.16
1.31
9
Suntec Reit
5,800
3.95
1.65
10
Keppel Corp
1,600
3.82
5.79
11
FCT
4,700
3.68
1.90
12
ParkwayLife Reit
3,600
3.50
2.36
13
SingTel
2,190
3.30
3.65
14
Keppel DC Reit
6,500
3.18
1.185
15
SPH Reit
7,600
2.98
0.95
16
Mapletree Com Tr
4,800
2.76
1.395
17
Starhill Global Reit
8,900
2.72
0.74
18
CapitaLand
2,000
2.49
3.02
19
CDL HTrust
3,900
2.15
1.34
20
Sembcorp Indust
1,800
2.11
2.85
21
Frasers Com Tr
3,700
1.92
1.26
22
SIA Engg
1,000
1.39
3.37
23
Keppel InfraTr
6,000
1.17
0.475
24
FCL
1,800
1.17
1.575
25
ST Engg
800
1.07
3.23
26
Frasers L&I Tr
2,700
1.03
0.925
27
Cache Log Tr
2,700
0.90
0.81
28
FE HTrust
2,800
0.69
0.60
29
Accordia Golf Tr
900
0.23
0.63
30
Saizen Reit
1,800
0.04
0.051
Movement in my portfolio in December:-
Sold:- Nil
Bought:- FCOT, FCT, PLife Reit, MCT, SPH Reit, FLT.

Dividends collected in Dec: $1,080.41
2016 avg dividends/month: $1,076.92 [40.6% up cf. 2015]
Total dividends collected in 2016: $12,922.99
Portfolio yield: 5.98%

Boring process of building up my passive income portfolio brick-by-brick (bit-by-bit).

Comments:
1. REIT trees planting episode 2 in December.  Took the opportunity to increase some of my REITs counters for future dividend fruits.

2. STI has closed at 2,880 at end December.  The year end window dressing not really materialized.

3. Current worst performing counter: SIA Engg (20.7% unrealised loss). Pondering whether to average down but found the REITs to be more tasty.

Friday, 30 December 2016

Looking Ahead to 2017: Dividends (明天会更好)

2016 was a not a good year for investment.  Hopefully 2017 is a better year.

My projected dividends for 2017 (based on current portfolio):
1. Starhub: $1,400?
2. SGX: $1,120
3. SPH: $1,080
4. AIMSAMPI Reit: $870
5. CMT: $645
6. Suntec Reit: $589
7. FCT: $552
8. OCBC: $517
9. SATS: $480
10. Keppel Corp: $480? 
11. Starhill Global: $460
12. PLife Reit: $447
13. Keppel DC Reit: $430
14. UOB: $429
15. SPH Reit: $418
16. MCT: $392
17. SingTel: $383
18. CDL HTrust: $382
19. FCOT: $363
20. Keppel Infra Tr: $223
21. F L&I Tr: $198?
22. Cache Log Tr: $190
23. CapitaLand: $180
24. Sembcorp Ind: $180?
25. FCL: $154
26. FEHT: $122
27. SIA Engg: $120
28. ST Engg: $120
29. Accordia Golf Tr: $60
30. Saizen Reit (Sime Darby Reit?): ?

Total: ~$12,984
Avg/month: $1,082

Probably small increase to 2016 minus the special dividend contribution from Saizen Reit.  Though, from the modest $3k+ dividends in 2012 to the $12k+ in 2016, this shows that this strategy is working for me.  

The wish for the new year: Wishing everyone 明天会更好!

Tuesday, 27 December 2016

2016 Portfolio Review (Part 2): Foundation Stocks

2016 is another challenging year for investment.  Many "marketquakes" starting with China market's failed circuit breaker implementation, the ever present oil price worry, the continuing terrorist threat, the surprising Brexit and Donald Trump victory, the rate hike in December and perhaps further hikes in 2017.   Sometimes when you think you are moving a step forward, but actually you are forced taking two steps backward due to strong headwinds.

My portfolio crossed two milestones in 2016.  First, the 200K point was surpassed. Then, the special dividend from Saizen Reit gave a great turbocharge to my 2016 dividends and the 12K mark was exceeded for the first time in my investment journey. 

My portfolio was set up using SGX, Starhub and SPH as foundation stocks, and Reits and other dividend stocks are supporting casts.  SPH, Starhub and the Reits were all battered hard this year.  Although the foundation stock trees grow deep roots over the years, it is time to review the continued relevance of them as foundation stocks.



1. SGX

Trading activities and volumes continue to languish despite reduction of lot size from 1,000 to 100 shares.  Still waiting for an IPO blockbuster...

Chance of SGX failing as a company is minimal.  My SGX tree already has very deep roots and I like the quarterly dividend payouts (like a REIT).  I will add more SGX if it comes low enough.

2. Starhub 

The company is facing stiff direct streaming competition on cable TV, mobile phone operations and uncertainties in market dilution after the 4th telco starts operation.

Starhub has long history in consistent dividend payments, but it remains uncertain whether dividend would be cut in 2017.  However, the Starhub dividend is juicy, even factoring in a 10-20% cut. But I will not add onto my current position. 

3. SPH 

The continuing decline in SPH's core business earnings and its dividend payout is a concern.  Though I do not think the old stalwart is about to die yet, I will not add onto my current position.


My foundation stocks have served their purpose in the build up of my portfolio, but I think it is time for change.  So, I decided to revamp my holdings as such:

1. Keep SGX as my foundation stock.
2. Group Starhub, SPH, banks, KC/SCI, the two Enggs into in a STI-component group.
3. REIT group on selective reit counters.
4. Small portion for non-STI and non-REIT counters.

Let's see how it work out in 2017. 

Sunday, 25 December 2016

Planting more REIT trees for dividend fruits (II)

REITs counters are battered again in December after the news of the rate hike.

I have taken the opportunity to load more REITs into my portfolio.  I have added FCT, FCOT, ParkwayLife Reit, MCT and SPH Reit.  Looking to add A Reit and CCT too, if they could come down lower for me.  Spoilt for choice as many REIT counters are looking real juicy.

I do not know whether this is a good time for REITs, but I am revamping my portfolio to increase the REIT counters weightage.  Hope the move will let me harvest more dividend fruits in the future.

To prevent myself getting into a REIT quagmire, I am holding some reserves in the event of further REIT decline in 2017.