Wednesday, 30 December 2015

Looking Ahead to 2016: Dividends (明天会更好)

2015 was a bad year for investment.  Hopefully 2016 is a better year.

My projected dividends for 2016 (based on current portfolio):
1. Starhub: $1,340
2. SGX: $1,240
3. SPH: $1,000
4. AIMS AMPI Reit: $666
5. Suntec Reit: $481 ?
6. Keppel Corp: $480 ? 
7. CMT: $449
8. SATS: $420
9. Starhill Global: $412
10. SingTel: $383
11. Frasers CT: $336
12. SPH Reit: $317
13. CDL HTrust: $312
14. OCBC: $293
15. Sembcorp Ind: $288
16. Keppel Infra Trust: $223
17. HPH Trust: $205
18. CapitaLand: $180
19. PLife Reit: $158 ?
20. SIA Engg: $145
21. ST Engg: $128
22. Keppel DC Reit: $123 ?
23. FCOT: $97
24. FEHT: $89
25. MCT: $72
26. Boustead: $30 ?
27. Saizen Reit: $27 ?

Total: ~$9,894
Avg/month: $824

With additional injected capital, my dividends will easily exceeding $10K for 2016.  And perhaps some counters will issue special dividends!  From the modest $3k+ dividends in 2012 to the $10k+ in 2016, this shows that this strategy is working for me.  

The wish for the new year: Wishing everyone 明天会更好!

Friday, 25 December 2015

2015 Portfolio Review (Part 2): Foundation Stocks

2015 is a very challenging year for investment, especially in the last two quarters of the year.  China market crashed from its height, devalued renminbi, fear of US interest hike and persistent low oil prices weighed heavily on the market.  Sometimes you think you are moving one step forward, but then you are actually forced taking two steps backward due to strong headwinds.

In the month of August, my portfolio crashed $20K.  On the Black Monday (24th Aug), my total portfolio value marginally fell below the total invested capital value.  

My portfolio was set up using SGX, Starhub and SPH as foundation stocks, and Reits and other dividend stocks are supporting casts.  While the Reits and O&G counters got battered by the market downturn, luckily my foundation stocks are more able to withstand the barrage.  And on the same week of Black Monday, my portfolio recovered back to positive territory.

I think the major factor is probably due to the deep roots that the foundation stock trees managed to grow over the years.  However, there is no short-cut here, and we really need time for the roots of our trees to grow.

I did some small shopping on Black Monday.  However, I found out that low can become lower as banks and O&G counters continue their march downwards. 

My portfolio managed to stay positive at Christmas, meaning the current value is more than the invested capital value, without counting the dividends received.  The dividends collected are like roots growing under the dividend trees.

Now, as all dividends are collected and all tradings done for 2015, it is time to review the 3 foundation stocks:

1. SGX

Trading activities and volumes continue to languish despite reduction of lot size from 1,000 to 100 shares.  Only one pathetic mainboard IPO listing in the whole year of 2015.  When will we see an IPO blockbuster?
Trading activity fell in the first six months of the year - See more at:

Despite these failings, SGX share price is relatively resilient in the year 2015.  Interim dividend increased from 4 cents to 5 cents from November.  And my SGX tree already grows very deep roots. 

Chance of SGX failing as a company is minimal and together with the quarterly dividend payouts (almost like a REIT), SGX stays as my foundation stock.

2. Starhub 

The company is facing stiff direct streaming competition on cable TV, mobile phone operations and uncertainties in market dilution after the 4th telco starts operation.

Starhub has long history in consistent dividend payments, and the Starhub tree has deep roots and remains standing during the August gale.  Starhub stays as my foundation stock for another year.

3. SPH

Everybody says it is a company in a sunset industry and a dying business.  The SPH tree does not have the deep roots as SGX and Starhub in my portfolio but it remained standing during the August gale.  Look like the old stalwart is not about to die yet.  

So, in conclusion, no change to my foundation stocks in 2016.

Thursday, 24 December 2015

2015 Portfolio Review (Part 1): Winners and Losers

Time flies and 2015 is ending soon.  All my tradings are done and all dividends are collected.  It is time to review my portfolio's winners and losers in 2015.

Top Dividend Contributors: 

1. Starhub (13.82%):
- 4th telco looming, but consistent Starhub is still the top dividend contributor.

2. SGX (12.62%):
- SGX has dividend payout every quarter, almost like a REIT.

3. SPH (10.88%):
- Good old SPH is one of the consistent contributor to my dividend incomes.

Dethroned: SPH (2014). 

In 2014, the top 3 dividend contributors accounted for 46% of my total dividends.  In 2015, the top 3 dividend contributors accounted for just 37% of the total dividends. So, a bit of diversification.

Next, some Christmas fun and amusement. 

Dividend Yield Winners (龙虎榜):

1. Boustead (37.18%):
- Special dividend payout (I considered the free Boustead Proj shares as special dividend from Boustead).
- Huge weakening of Boustead stock value after spinning off Boustead ProjectCurrent price is less than my breakeven price.
- Should have sold after getting the special dividend.

2. Keppel Infra Trust (10.92%)
- Special dividend payout, after merging with CitySpring.
- Have been holding CitySpring since its IPO.  Not a concern to me as its current price is higher than my breakeven price.

3. HPHT (9.19%)
- Highest dividend payer from STI component stocks.  Current price is less than my average price and breakeven price.
- Not too much concern to me as it is just 1% of my portfolio.
- May probably average down. 

Dethroned: HPHT (2014).

Dividend Yield Losers (老鼠榜): 

1. Capitaland (2.70%)
- Sleeping giant.  I am still waiting for it to wake up to its potential and hoping its dividend could increase.
- Capitaland retains the trophy for this category. 

2. SATS (3.60%)
- The share price has increased, but dividends remain the same.

3. SGX (3.81%)
- Hope the increase in dividend in November could be sustained.

A return gain or loss will only be realised when I sell.  The current unrealised return winners and losers:

Unrealised Return Winners (英雄榜):

1. SGX (83.7% gain):
- This is one of my foundation stocks and will remain for keep.

2. CapitaMall Trust (44.1% gain):
- Will stay for dividends.

3. SATS (35.6% gain):
- Will stay for dividends and possibly growth.

Dethroned: Sing Post (2014).

Unrealised Return Losers (狗熊榜):

1. Keppel Corp (18.3% loss)
- Fallen giant.  Stock value depressed due to low oil price.
- May probably average down. 

2. SIA Engg (16.9% loss)
- Probably could recover some loss after next dividend payout.

3. HPHT (15.3% loss)
- Double winner HPHT failed to defend the 2 titles it won in 2014.

Dethroned: HPHT (2014).

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a Prosperous 2016.

Saturday, 5 December 2015

IPO - BHG Retail REIT - Immensely Priced Offering?

First, and probably only mainboard IPO in 2015.

China retail operator BHG Retail REIT launched an initial public offering of units at an offering price of $0.80 per unit.

The timing for this retail REIT IPOs is just not right now due to uncertainties caused by imminent interest rates hike, decline in retail outlook due to online shopping competition, etc.

Some of the business trust and REITS IPOs are indeed Immensely Priced Offerings:
- Rickmers Maritime Trust: IPO $1.57, current $0.134 (payment of dividend stopped)
- Indiabulls Trust: IPO $1, current $0.26
- Keppel Infra Trust (previously CitySpring): IPO $0.89, current $0.515
- HPH Trust: IPO US$1.01, current US$0.54
- Accordia Golf Trust: IPO $0.97, current $0.56
- Asian Pay TV Tr: IPO $0.97, current $0.73 
- Croesus Rtrust: IPO $0.93, current $0.80 
- Ireit Global: IPO $0.88, current $0.68
- FEHT: IPO $0.93, current $0.64
- FHT: IPO $0.88, current $0.735
- OUE Hospitality Trust: IPO $0.88, current $0.795
- Ascendas-hTrust: IPO $0.88, current $0.66
- OUE C-REIT: IPO $0.80, current $0.68
- Sabana REIT: IPO $1.05, current $0.73
- Viva Ind Tr: IPO $0.78, current $0.70

Only a few of the recent Reit IPOs buck the trend:
- SPH Reit: IPO $0.90, current $0.94
- Keppel DC Reit: IPO $0.93, current $1.04
- Cache Log Trust: IPO $0.88, current $0.91  

I think it is very likely that the IPO of BHG Retail REIT will be poorly subscribed because of current poor investor sentiment.  And more than likely that BHG Retail REIT will join the group of Immensely Priced Offerings.