Saturday, 23 January 2016

2016 Weekly Review - Week 2

I am taking a closer monitoring of my holdings this year as the Bear Army continues to run wild.  This is for reinforcement deployment planning (warchest).

Since the Bear Army launched the attack on the first trading day of 2016, it has taken over 4.6% of my territory after 2 weeks of fighting (not counting dividends collected).

In my rush in sending reserved units to the frontline on the first week, my reinforcement contingent was ambushed by the Bear Army (bank counters slided down too).

My worst performing counter is Keppel Corp, which has lost 38% its invested value.  The depressed oil price means Keppel Corp may not get back to its glory days of being a $12 stock for a long time.  Next week is Keppel Corp's financial reporting and it could be nasty.  I think it is impossible that Keppel Corp could maintain the 48c dividend as in 2015.  Maybe a 30-50% cut in dividend is possible.  

Sembcorp Indust is not far behind from Keppel Corp and so far has lost 30% its invested value.  These 2 counters are main contributors to my portfolio's decline.  Let's see how low Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Indust can go.  But I just do not think they could go bust.

A lot of counters are very tempting now and I just about managed to stop myself from clicking the "buy" button this week.  Low could go lower.  And most importantly, the current bear could be different from that Lehman Bear, and it could stay put here for a long time.  Let's ponder carefully before using our limited resources.

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